2015 POSTSEASON: MOST IMPACTFUL PLAYS (AS MEASURED BY FANGRAPHS WIN PROBABILITY ADDED)

November 1, 2015
Nicholas Patrick

9
Date:
October 12
Game: ALDS Game 4; Royals at Astros
State: Royals trail, 6-4; Top 8th, no outs, bases loaded
Win Probability Before Play: 44.4%
Outcome: Kendrys Morales chopped a potential double-play ball off Tony Sipp that skipped past shortstop Carlos Correa into shallow left-center field, scoring Ben Zobrist and Lorenzo Cain to tie the game, and placing runners at 1st and 3rd
Win Probability After Play: 75.6%
Win Probability Added: 31.1%
Epilogue: Royals added one more run in the 8th, and two more runs in the 9th, to secure a jaw-dropping, series-tying, 9-6 victory

8
Date:
October 13
Game: NLDS Game 4; Cardinals at Cubs
State: Cubs trail, 2-1; Bottom 2nd, two outs, runners at 1st & 2nd
Win Probability Before Play: 42.2%
Outcome: Javier Baez lined a three-run, opposite-field home run to right field off John Lackey to give the Cubs a 4-2 lead
Win Probability After Play: 74.1%
Win Probability Added: 31.9%
Epilogue: After the Cardinals tied the game in the 6th, the Cubs quickly jumped back on top and held on for a 6-4 win, clinching their second postseason series victory in the last 107 years

7
Date:
October 12
Game: NLDS Game 3; Dodgers at Mets
State: Mets trail, 3-1; Bottom 2nd, two outs, bases loaded
Win Probability Before Play: 33.8%
Outcome: Curtis Granderson doubled to the center field wall off Brett Anderson to score Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Juan Lagares to give the Mets a 4-3 lead
Win Probability After Play: 66.2%
Win Probability Added: 32.3%
Epilogue: Mets extended their lead to 10-3 by the end of the 4th inning, and cruised to a 13-7 win

6
Date:
October 23
Game: ALCS Game 6; Blue Jays at Royals
State: Blue Jays trail, 3-1; Top 8th, one out, runner at 1st
Win Probability Before Play: 12.9%
Outcome: Jose Bautista hit a crowd-silencing, two-run homer to left field off Ryan Madson to tie the game
Win Probability After Play: 45.5%
Win Probability Added: 32.6%
Epilogue: Bautista’s clutch moment was upstaged in the bottom of the inning by Lorenzo Cain’s mad dash to score the go-ahead run from first base on Eric Hosmer’s single, as the Royals went on to win the game and the series

5
Date:
October 10
Game: NLDS Game 2; Mets at Dodgers
State: Dodgers tied with Mets, 2-2; Bottom 7th, two outs, runners at 1st & 2nd
Win Probability Before Play: 57.2%
Outcome: Adrian Gonzalez lined a two-run double to right field off Addison Reed, scoring Chase Utley and Howie Kendrick, and giving the Dodgers a 4-2 lead
Win Probability After Play: 89.9%
Win Probability Added: 32.7%
Epilogue: Dodgers added one more run in the inning on their way to a 5-2 victory

4
Date:
October 31
Game: World Series Game 4; Royals at Mets
State: Royals trail, 3-2; Top 8th, one out, runners at 1st & 2nd
Win Probability Before Play: 31.9%
Outcome: Eric Hosmer hit a slow grounder off Jeurys Familia that rolled under the glove of charging second baseman Daniel Murphy and into shallow right field, scoring Ben Zobrist to tie the game, and placing runners at 1st and 3rd
Win Probability After Play: 66.0%
Win Probability Added: 34.1%
Epilogue: Royals scored two more runs in the inning to take the lead, and with the winning run at the plate for the Mets in the bottom of the ninth inning, turned a line-drive double play to finish a 5-3 victory

3
Date:
October 14
Game: ALDS Game 5; Rangers at Blue Jays
State: Blue Jays tied with Rangers, 3-3; Bottom 7th, two outs, runners at 1st & 3rd
Win Probability Before Play: 58.8%
Outcome: Jose Bautista blasted a three-run homer to left-center field off Sam Dyson to give the Blue Jays a 6-3 lead
Win Probability After Play: 93.5%
Win Probability Added: 34.6%
Epilogue: Blue Jays held on to clinch the series in an absolutely out-of-its-mind game that included a return throw from a catcher that never reached the pitcher, multiple replay reviews, an ejection, an official team protest, an unofficial fan protest, defensive errors on three consecutive plays, the Bat Flip Heard ‘Round North America, and multiple bench-clearing conflicts

2
Date:
October 9
Game: ALDS Game 2; Rangers at Blue Jays
State: Rangers tied with Blue Jays, 4-4; Top 14th, two outs, runners at 1st & 2nd
Win Probability Before Play: 47.7%
Outcome: Hanser Alberto singled to center field off Latroy Hawkins to score Rougned Odor, giving the Rangers a 5-4 lead and placing runners at 2nd and 3rd
Win Probability After Play: 84.3%
Win Probability Added: 36.6%
Epilogue: Rangers added one more run in the inning and held on for a 6-4 victory

1
Date:
October 27
Game: World Series Game 1; Mets at Royals
State: Royals trail, 4-3; Bottom 9th, one out, bases empty
Win Probability Before Play: 10.0%
Outcome: Alex Gordon crushes a solo homer off Jeurys Familia to tie the game
Win Probability After Play: 57.2%
Win Probability Added: 47.2%
Epilogue: Royals claim an epic 14-inning victory on a walk-off sacrifice fly